Viral & Virtual Inter-connective - Interrelationships - the Fourth Dimension of Risk
It is generally accepted that there are three primary dimensions that influence market movements, being: 1 – Time, 2 – Price, and 3 – Volatility.
However, an Armstrong Economics, Models & Methodologies publication, presents a fourth dimension. Which, if included to consider when analysing market- and economic movements, proverbially explodes horizons of analysis, and brings a much needed dimension related to the supposedly unquantifiable, human behavioural reality, and its expression in numbers, through the Socrates AI system, based at Princeton University, to bear on analysis.
The Fourth Dimension of market- and economic movement(s), Armstrong- and Princeton Economics considers, implements, and practices in their unique economic modelling and analysis systems, is nothing but: Interrelationships.
By introducing Interrelationships, as Fourth Dimension, to the Market-Economic movement mix, an asymmetric dimensions of veritable quantum unpredictability is introduced through the proverbial conceptual/theoretical backdoor.
Simply put this means that, RiskRecon accepts the Armstrong & Princeton Economics proposition of adding Interrelationships as critical Fourth Dimension to the analysis, reading, and implicitly, risk projections made relating to economies, markets, or in more granular cases- that of business, organisations, state entities.
This is why RiskRecon sees the dimension of Interrelationships, implicitly, also as a dimension of risk. If such a conceptual and theoretical approach is accepted, it has vast implications for tired, bored out of their minds clever corporate serfs surviving their way through a compliance driven risk assessment exercise.
It furthermore adds Time as dimension that impacts human confidence in markets – seeing that, as Armstrong & Princeton Economics argues: markets move based on anticipation. Which, in the analysis deployed in RiskRecon, is directly anchored in human behaviour, decision- making, and perception.1
More specifically, Armstrong Economics argues, relating to the Confidence factor in markets, that:
“Stocks and bonds swing with confidence, as people will not buy or sell without it. Although many would argue that confidence is some sort of nebulous element that is impossible to survey, the best method of determining confidence is the ultimate survey of all time – market price movement. If you monitor market price movement and world capital trends, you can gain a true sense of confidence in the underlying economy. When confidence collapses, capital flees.”2
This means that Risk horizons are not what you think they may be, and that an assumed status quo, will perpetually be challenged by conditions of non-marginal change testing the limits of economic systems, social stability/state integrity the world over. The Fourth Dimension of Risk, proposed in RiskRecon is the dimension of Interrelationships.
1 https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/training-tools/understanding- the-global-market-watch/
2 https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/ ModelsMethodologies.SecondEdition.pdf