{"id":431,"date":"2022-03-10T12:00:00","date_gmt":"2022-03-10T12:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/riskrecon.co.za\/?p=431"},"modified":"2022-03-10T16:46:14","modified_gmt":"2022-03-10T16:46:14","slug":"the-south-african-case-local-government-failure-as-first-stage-of-state-collapse","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/riskrecon.co.za\/?p=431","title":{"rendered":"The South African case: local government failure as first stage of state collapse"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"431\" class=\"elementor elementor-431\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-774a1fa elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"774a1fa\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-282924a\" data-id=\"282924a\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-4d393ce elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"4d393ce\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Local government failure as first stage of state collapse Video Summary Introduction<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-689f81f elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"689f81f\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-3a530e5\" data-id=\"3a530e5\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-d994f20 elementor-widget elementor-widget-html\" data-id=\"d994f20\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"html.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<iframe class=\"rumble\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/rumble.com\/embed\/vueleh\/?pub=qn4j9\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-6ff3fff elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"6ff3fff\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-c39ad78\" data-id=\"c39ad78\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-d15aabd elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"d15aabd\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"960\" height=\"540\" src=\"https:\/\/riskrecon.co.za\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/States-of-Collapse-SA-Case-Blindspot-12.1.22.003.jpeg\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-348\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/riskrecon.co.za\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/States-of-Collapse-SA-Case-Blindspot-12.1.22.003.jpeg 960w, https:\/\/riskrecon.co.za\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/States-of-Collapse-SA-Case-Blindspot-12.1.22.003-300x169.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/riskrecon.co.za\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/States-of-Collapse-SA-Case-Blindspot-12.1.22.003-768x432.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/riskrecon.co.za\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/States-of-Collapse-SA-Case-Blindspot-12.1.22.003-600x338.jpeg 600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 960px) 100vw, 960px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-1ea4937 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"1ea4937\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-c759110\" data-id=\"c759110\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-44a2600 elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"44a2600\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"960\" height=\"540\" src=\"https:\/\/riskrecon.co.za\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/RiskRecon-Report-1-2022-Local-government-failure-and-state-collapse-in-South-Africa-2.2.22.008.jpeg\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-439\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/riskrecon.co.za\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/RiskRecon-Report-1-2022-Local-government-failure-and-state-collapse-in-South-Africa-2.2.22.008.jpeg 960w, https:\/\/riskrecon.co.za\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/RiskRecon-Report-1-2022-Local-government-failure-and-state-collapse-in-South-Africa-2.2.22.008-300x169.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/riskrecon.co.za\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/RiskRecon-Report-1-2022-Local-government-failure-and-state-collapse-in-South-Africa-2.2.22.008-768x432.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/riskrecon.co.za\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/RiskRecon-Report-1-2022-Local-government-failure-and-state-collapse-in-South-Africa-2.2.22.008-600x338.jpeg 600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 960px) 100vw, 960px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-7595838 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"7595838\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-8d6cace\" data-id=\"8d6cace\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-ee530d2 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"ee530d2\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><b>Introductory &amp; Contextual Note <\/b><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p>A number of political developments in the year 2021 had a decided impact on the outlook for South Africa\u2019s broader state-systemic, economic, and social stability. During the month of July the country was brought to a standstill by way of insurrectionist actions, unrest and looting for nine days, while the local government elections towards the end of the year revealed more disconcerting dynamics that have a negative impact on the outlook<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>for South Africa\u2019s systemic stability in the period 2022-2024.<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p>More recently, the release of the first \u2018instalments\u2019 of the much awaited Zondo Commission report into State Capture, further underlines the critical governance weaknesses, and breakdowns the South African state system has been suffering for more than a decade. RiskRecon consider these developments significant- with major consequences for citizens in the first instance, and, secondly, the outlook for the stability of the state system itself.<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p>The year 2022 opened on a high note with as yet to be fully explained fires that gutted parliamentary buildings in Cape Town. This has proverbially rendered parliament, and implicitly South African democracy &#8211; homeless.\u00a0While the report consider broader issues and developments with a bearing on the subject, it should be noted that the main question interrogated here is quite simple, being:<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p><em><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><b>Is the failure of local governments in South Africa the first stage, or, harbinger of state collapse?<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0<\/span><\/b><\/span><\/em><\/p><p>It is contended that unstable and failing local governments, undermine the social contract. It furthermore erodes more than trust in government, and political leaders. It is a cancerous force undermining the legitimacy, authority, and viability of the state system in general.<\/p><p>The core problem(s) RiskRecon addresses in terms of the concepts State Failure and State Collapse particularly in the South African local government context are:<\/p><ul><li>How to better read the risks, multiple moments of micro-collapse, and micro-failure, that precede \u2018big moments of state collapse\u2019? The latter is one of the core issues pertaining to the analysis of the South African case presented herein;<\/li><li>How to understand the grey-zone that marks the passage from state failure to collapse;<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li><li><b>RiskRecon proposes that a non-linear time-relationship exists between state failure and collapse. There is not a single unidirectional time and causal relationship that leads from failure to collapse. Instances of state failure, and manifestations of collapse, can co-exist in both time and space.<\/b> Thus these acidic forces become mutually reinforcing driving socio-systemic instability, institutional decay, political fragmentation &amp; conflagration. <span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li><\/ul>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-771d6ee elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"771d6ee\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-50 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-ee3f385\" data-id=\"ee3f385\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-c5f82ba elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"c5f82ba\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<figure class=\"wp-caption\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"960\" height=\"540\" src=\"https:\/\/riskrecon.co.za\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/States-of-Collapse-SA-Case-Blindspot-12.1.22.009.jpeg\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-353\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/riskrecon.co.za\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/States-of-Collapse-SA-Case-Blindspot-12.1.22.009.jpeg 960w, https:\/\/riskrecon.co.za\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/States-of-Collapse-SA-Case-Blindspot-12.1.22.009-300x169.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/riskrecon.co.za\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/States-of-Collapse-SA-Case-Blindspot-12.1.22.009-768x432.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/riskrecon.co.za\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/States-of-Collapse-SA-Case-Blindspot-12.1.22.009-600x338.jpeg 600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 960px) 100vw, 960px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<figcaption class=\"widget-image-caption wp-caption-text\"><\/figcaption>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/figure>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-50 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-9a824ed\" data-id=\"9a824ed\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-1493a29 elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"1493a29\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"960\" height=\"540\" src=\"https:\/\/riskrecon.co.za\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/RiskRecon-Report-1-2022-Local-government-failure-and-state-collapse-in-South-Africa-2.2.22.013.jpeg\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-440\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/riskrecon.co.za\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/RiskRecon-Report-1-2022-Local-government-failure-and-state-collapse-in-South-Africa-2.2.22.013.jpeg 960w, https:\/\/riskrecon.co.za\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/RiskRecon-Report-1-2022-Local-government-failure-and-state-collapse-in-South-Africa-2.2.22.013-300x169.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/riskrecon.co.za\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/RiskRecon-Report-1-2022-Local-government-failure-and-state-collapse-in-South-Africa-2.2.22.013-768x432.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/riskrecon.co.za\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/RiskRecon-Report-1-2022-Local-government-failure-and-state-collapse-in-South-Africa-2.2.22.013-600x338.jpeg 600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 960px) 100vw, 960px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-7def63e elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"7def63e\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-4f2aa72\" data-id=\"4f2aa72\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-2dc58eb elementor-align-center elementor-widget elementor-widget-button\" data-id=\"2dc58eb\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"button.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-button-wrapper\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-button elementor-button-link elementor-size-sm\" href=\"#elementor-action%3Aaction%3Dpopup%3Aopen%26settings%3DeyJpZCI6IjM5NSIsInRvZ2dsZSI6ZmFsc2V9\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-content-wrapper\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-text\">Send me the full article<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Local government failure as first stage of state collapse Video Summary Introduction Introductory &amp; Contextual Note &nbsp; A number of political developments in the year 2021 had a decided impact on the outlook for South Africa\u2019s broader state-systemic, economic, and social stability. During the month of July the country was brought to a standstill by [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":88,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[20],"tags":[30,44,39,38],"class_list":["post-431","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-sa-dynamics-developments","tag-south-africa","tag-state-capture","tag-state-collapse","tag-state-failure","entry","has-media","owp-thumbs-layout-horizontal","owp-btn-normal","owp-tabs-layout-horizontal","has-no-thumbnails","has-product-nav"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/riskrecon.co.za\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/431","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/riskrecon.co.za\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/riskrecon.co.za\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/riskrecon.co.za\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/riskrecon.co.za\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=431"}],"version-history":[{"count":45,"href":"https:\/\/riskrecon.co.za\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/431\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":630,"href":"https:\/\/riskrecon.co.za\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/431\/revisions\/630"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/riskrecon.co.za\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/88"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/riskrecon.co.za\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=431"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/riskrecon.co.za\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=431"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/riskrecon.co.za\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=431"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}